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Yo's avatar

Wow! this is very scary projection, Hope it wouldn't come indeed.

But yes, it seems wise to prepare at lease.

Thank you always for awakening.

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maximilion's avatar

Dear Ben,

Considering the chart above, I have a question due to the price prediction of MI_Algos. Grayscale will release a new tranche on April 21, wouldn't this have a positive influence on the price of bitcoin? Or because of its negative premium, it has a negative outcome?

Thank you again for sharing this helpful and insightful research.

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Ben Lilly's avatar

Hey there. MI_Algos' model does not take into account Grayscale.

If the Grayscale Effect continues to bat 100%, then we'll see strong demand for bitcoin on the spot market over the next couple months.

Just because the demand is strong does not necessarily mean there won't be corrections similar to this. What's important to note is this fractal was from a bear market... so the corrective nature might be a bit different if it repeats.

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Nick's avatar

In the event that the fractal does play out, doesn’t that also mean that the gamma squeeze to the downside will also play out (I recall 54k being a critical price level)?

At that point, doesn’t this structure just resemble a wyckoff distribution schematic and we can therefore see even further downside?

Or am I being far too bearish lol

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Ben Lilly's avatar

that's definitely in the cards. negative gamma trades with price... but recall the positive gamma trades against, so you'll witness buying from ITM players... price sort of has guardrails right now.

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