20 Comments

Always helpful to get your perspective on where we are and where we are likely to go. As always, thank you ben.

Don

Expand full comment

Hope you are well Don, look forward to your next essay

Expand full comment

Very cool. Please more of this regular shorter analysis. You doing a great job - thank you!

Expand full comment

Thanks Oliver, glad to have you back

Expand full comment

Really great article, thanks. Clear, concise and informative.

Expand full comment

Thank you for reading, Chris

Expand full comment

Ben, this is exactly what I've been looking for from your team, clear, concise, actionable insight on market conditions and trends. Bravo!!

Expand full comment

Had a few people message me saying they missed the old market updates.. we are listening, i promise!

We are still just getting started..

Expand full comment

And please don't forget to reactivate your grayscale market updates too!

Expand full comment

I'll consider looking into those soon, thx for the idea

Expand full comment

thank you

Expand full comment

Hey Dom, thanks for reading

Expand full comment

I'm curiuos about the dip under 200 ma in mid 2022. What if that was the revisit and no we won't go back under 200 ma? What's the reasoning for ignoring that dip? Is it mainly because it doesn't align with the cycle time length? Is it possible the dip happened earlier?

I just feel with the current news coming out (SEC, binance, coinbase) that revisiting the 200 ma is giong to be tough and really the only thing that will effect this is the Liquidity drain we expect.

I'm also curious if there any more established patterns with ETH (other then following in BTC footsteps) as I believe that shanghai and EIP (burning) really changed the price dynamics. When does Eth become the leader.... Thanks

Expand full comment

Good Q there, Turk. That 200d MA retest in March 2023, and anything prior to that, falls out of the window of less than one year prior to the upcoming halving. It does not align with cycle time length.

We touched on ETH/BTC in the podcast. It's worth a listen since it looks to be a bit of a beta play moving forward. I'm sure we'll revisit that chart some more soon.

Expand full comment

I will take a look at the podcast thanks!

Expand full comment

Could you give an example of how to ‘de-risk’ a long term position?

Expand full comment

Puts tend to be a standard way to hedge a portfolio. Another way is one could sell some of their spot positions.. or perhaps reduce size in higher risk tokens.

Expand full comment

So no uniquely crypto way.

Expand full comment

price drops tend to uptick price volatility and uptick price volume. yield via dex pools is another option.. perhaps you're really good at setting bearish biased liquidity bands using v3 uniswap pools.. maybe on ribbon there is a good strategy that's bearish leaning.. it's all about how creative you want to get.

Also consider i'm not you advisor and how somebody de-risks is personal to them. i'd recommend you consult your financial advisor if you need specifics.

Expand full comment

A uniquely crypto way would be to borrow usdt or similar against your crypto using aave or similar. it's basically like selling without the selling. have to watch for liquidations.

Expand full comment