Thank you for writing this, Ben. It took me over an hour to follow your insights through the charts, but at the end I feel like I just went through a macro masterclass. It also adds a lot more context to all the hysteria coming from other analyses I've been reading.
I can't thank you enough; can't wait for parts II and III; hope you enjoyed writing it.
Hi Ben, as Eurodollars heavily contracting right now and funds rate lifting off zero it seems like this is a new scenario and not being similar to one of the 4 (the closest being the 2nd). Would you agree? Where do you see us currently?
Valuable read. But, i have my reservations on this theory since this cycle is very different to previous ones which makes it much more complicated.
1) Covid crash wasn't a bear market like the long bear market after 2000 and 2007. And hence relatively taking, this cycle should be much much smaller.
2) Euro-dollar curves already looks much narrowed and inverted. They didn't need interest rates to actually rise above zero to have an equivalent effect.
3) Decade high inflation. FED pivot might not come as quickly.
Thanks Ben for the article, it has been long time but worth the wait, looking forward to next two parts in the series to sum it all up and it's corelation with bitcoin cycles.
Fascinating insight Ben, thank you so much for sharing this publicly ! I've built the same chart as you since your "Hidden warning sign" issue. One small comment : when assessing the Nasdaq evolution across multiple decades, it might be worth looking at the inflation-corrected index ? This metric would tie up quite well with your theory if we consider that we've still got 25% upside (and 60% on SPX) before reaching the dot.com bubble high...
Thank you for writing this, Ben. It took me over an hour to follow your insights through the charts, but at the end I feel like I just went through a macro masterclass. It also adds a lot more context to all the hysteria coming from other analyses I've been reading.
I can't thank you enough; can't wait for parts II and III; hope you enjoyed writing it.
Can't wait for part two and three 🍿
Thank you for the article, Ben!
amazing work!!
Thank you!
Thank you for this. Much appreciated.
Thanks a ton, Ben. This is an absolute gem
Hi Ben, as Eurodollars heavily contracting right now and funds rate lifting off zero it seems like this is a new scenario and not being similar to one of the 4 (the closest being the 2nd). Would you agree? Where do you see us currently?
Valuable read. But, i have my reservations on this theory since this cycle is very different to previous ones which makes it much more complicated.
1) Covid crash wasn't a bear market like the long bear market after 2000 and 2007. And hence relatively taking, this cycle should be much much smaller.
2) Euro-dollar curves already looks much narrowed and inverted. They didn't need interest rates to actually rise above zero to have an equivalent effect.
3) Decade high inflation. FED pivot might not come as quickly.
Thank you!
Amazing piece!
Thanks Ben for the article, it has been long time but worth the wait, looking forward to next two parts in the series to sum it all up and it's corelation with bitcoin cycles.
Thanks Ben for this once again ! Love it ! At least we know at what point we are..
Fascinating insight Ben, thank you so much for sharing this publicly ! I've built the same chart as you since your "Hidden warning sign" issue. One small comment : when assessing the Nasdaq evolution across multiple decades, it might be worth looking at the inflation-corrected index ? This metric would tie up quite well with your theory if we consider that we've still got 25% upside (and 60% on SPX) before reaching the dot.com bubble high...
You're an oracle, Ben. Thanks a lot, so insightful.
Thank you!