It's interesting albeit quite speculative. But a methodology flaw I see is that Bitcoin TPS is about 5, meaning in a single day there can't be much more than 1M daily active users. You could argue about lightning but it's not really ready for mass because of a number of constraint (liquidity, stablecoins...).
But if trying to use another coin or basket as a proxy, then the problem is defining what to track: Eth, Eth+L2, main L1s, ... and that choice is strongly influenced by the use case (e.g for casino/gaming, just look at BSC stats, or is it sound money against inflation, or money transfers...).
really interesting variables to account for here, thanks for commenting!
i think assessing all of these things is very much case dependent. different end games for different coins. like you mentioned BSC and l1's are mostly casinos so it wouldnt make sense to compare their users to paypal or venmo.
since BTC was invented as a p2p electronic cash network i still think of that as it's end game, or at least i buy that potential narrative more than a "global store of value"
but if BTC is ever going to scale and rival or overtake the likes of other payment networks like Venmo it's certainly going have to fix it's TPS issue. maybe if/when that gets figured out it will provide a major tipping point and spike upwards in new user adoption
It's interesting albeit quite speculative. But a methodology flaw I see is that Bitcoin TPS is about 5, meaning in a single day there can't be much more than 1M daily active users. You could argue about lightning but it's not really ready for mass because of a number of constraint (liquidity, stablecoins...).
But if trying to use another coin or basket as a proxy, then the problem is defining what to track: Eth, Eth+L2, main L1s, ... and that choice is strongly influenced by the use case (e.g for casino/gaming, just look at BSC stats, or is it sound money against inflation, or money transfers...).
really interesting variables to account for here, thanks for commenting!
i think assessing all of these things is very much case dependent. different end games for different coins. like you mentioned BSC and l1's are mostly casinos so it wouldnt make sense to compare their users to paypal or venmo.
since BTC was invented as a p2p electronic cash network i still think of that as it's end game, or at least i buy that potential narrative more than a "global store of value"
but if BTC is ever going to scale and rival or overtake the likes of other payment networks like Venmo it's certainly going have to fix it's TPS issue. maybe if/when that gets figured out it will provide a major tipping point and spike upwards in new user adoption