The first length between peaks is 144 days as DVOL has missing data, it's on your chart. Also, first two you measure peak-to-peak, the 3rd is peak-to-trough.
We are in the middle of brainstorming how to update TARA. There are several ideas on how to make it more useful to you, the end user. We look to tie it more closely to the work each analyst is doing here in Espresso. Have it feel less random. Seems this sort of 'identity' is missing... essentially a narrative tied to the product. We are taking this feedback into consideration as we plan.
It does feel random, that's a brilliant observation. Me personally, I'm a trader with preference to day and swing trades. On chain does not entertain me that much but inflows/outflows is a good metric.
I mostly look at 30d returns, Wealth multiplier, Volatility indicator, Divergence, Exchange Netflows.
I also looked at Social Sentiment, Trend Flip, Accumulation Trends until they were taken down.
I'd really like to see Liq Pools there as well as your version of Spot/Perp CVD in case you have something cooking on that front.
Great eye there, thanks for mentioning that. I went ahead and pulled up DVOL on deribit to check... I see TView has incomplete data.
Looking at Deribit's chart, it seems there was a mild "peak" if you can call it that, on Aug 23, with a peak on Nov 3 (72 days). Will not a spike, it is a change of volatility nonetheless.
If we then use june 18, 2022 to aug 15, 2022 (58 days)
Then use peak to trough of nov 13, 2022 to jan 7, 2023
And jan 15, 2022 to mar 9, 2023
We get 59.5 days. Looks like it still stands, although not in the most methodical manner!
I'm nor sure if that is a peak pronounced enough. But Overall yeah, thank you for the update.
I also suspect that these peaks should coincide with huge macro catalysts like CPI or FOMC, as ~60d timing is telling. But I'm on the go so can't check that right now.
The formula is open interest divided by the amount of coins held in the reserve. You can dissect it by a particular exchange as well. My understanding is that Volatilities are driven by the liquidations and leverages in the system as was witnessed during the May 2021 meltdown.
low volatility is a result of the leverage ratio hitting all time low territory...volatility moves are correlated with the amount of leverage in the system.
Another great article! This one bent my brain a little. I absolutely loved the clever "soap box vs gas powered vehicle" description of prices of Bitcoin rising and falling, did I get it right that it was explaining the range bound activity of BTC price, touching the upper and lower liquidity pools?
Does anyone else think that 27k seems high for accumulation for bigger players?Maybe an all BTC position is better than cash or a scary stable coin, that's not so stable. Just buy BTC and cold wallet it. Fantastic article, again. Your content is better and different than anything else I have been reading. Congrats and keep it up, I so look forward to your articles in my inbox.
thank you, very informative
The first length between peaks is 144 days as DVOL has missing data, it's on your chart. Also, first two you measure peak-to-peak, the 3rd is peak-to-trough.
nice call out. when i adjust the peak-to-trough, it's avg is 56 days. as far as the data.
I think the more important point is first length is 144 days which means your average is based on 2 previous instances.
I'm not sure what you're looking at?
By the way, are you planning to add your Liq Pools to TARA?
We are in the middle of brainstorming how to update TARA. There are several ideas on how to make it more useful to you, the end user. We look to tie it more closely to the work each analyst is doing here in Espresso. Have it feel less random. Seems this sort of 'identity' is missing... essentially a narrative tied to the product. We are taking this feedback into consideration as we plan.
It does feel random, that's a brilliant observation. Me personally, I'm a trader with preference to day and swing trades. On chain does not entertain me that much but inflows/outflows is a good metric.
I mostly look at 30d returns, Wealth multiplier, Volatility indicator, Divergence, Exchange Netflows.
I also looked at Social Sentiment, Trend Flip, Accumulation Trends until they were taken down.
I'd really like to see Liq Pools there as well as your version of Spot/Perp CVD in case you have something cooking on that front.
I hope that helps.
This: https://imgur.com/3gC4yVn
The DVOL has missing data from June to Nov 2022
Great eye there, thanks for mentioning that. I went ahead and pulled up DVOL on deribit to check... I see TView has incomplete data.
Looking at Deribit's chart, it seems there was a mild "peak" if you can call it that, on Aug 23, with a peak on Nov 3 (72 days). Will not a spike, it is a change of volatility nonetheless.
If we then use june 18, 2022 to aug 15, 2022 (58 days)
Then use peak to trough of nov 13, 2022 to jan 7, 2023
And jan 15, 2022 to mar 9, 2023
We get 59.5 days. Looks like it still stands, although not in the most methodical manner!
https://ibb.co/SvTFnnB
I'm nor sure if that is a peak pronounced enough. But Overall yeah, thank you for the update.
I also suspect that these peaks should coincide with huge macro catalysts like CPI or FOMC, as ~60d timing is telling. But I'm on the go so can't check that right now.
The formula is open interest divided by the amount of coins held in the reserve. You can dissect it by a particular exchange as well. My understanding is that Volatilities are driven by the liquidations and leverages in the system as was witnessed during the May 2021 meltdown.
low volatility is a result of the leverage ratio hitting all time low territory...volatility moves are correlated with the amount of leverage in the system.
Do you have a link to the leverage ratio? Curious what're you are looking at here.
Another great article! This one bent my brain a little. I absolutely loved the clever "soap box vs gas powered vehicle" description of prices of Bitcoin rising and falling, did I get it right that it was explaining the range bound activity of BTC price, touching the upper and lower liquidity pools?
Does anyone else think that 27k seems high for accumulation for bigger players?Maybe an all BTC position is better than cash or a scary stable coin, that's not so stable. Just buy BTC and cold wallet it. Fantastic article, again. Your content is better and different than anything else I have been reading. Congrats and keep it up, I so look forward to your articles in my inbox.
I guess time will tell, right? It does seem rather high. But it's better to let the market let you know if it's happening first vs forming a bias.
Also, thanks for the kind words!