One thing I'd like to add as something to watch for is the flow of capital might not re-enter GBTC. But ETHE or the other trusts. The other Trusts have much less circulating supply, and creating premiums in those vehicles is less capital intensive than in GBTC. Something to consider. If we do, Grayscale Effect 2.0 - Altcoin version will need to be written up!
Ben someone shared this link on a private investor invite telegram of all places . This is a great read and a well thought out analysis . For what it’s worth we’re expecting bitcoin to go on next leg up and top out around 80k before a major correction . Then the liquidity swap into etherum and alts . Bitcoin. Recovers for an all time night into thanksgiving well over 100k
Thank you very much for your outstanding anaylsis. Could you share your thoughts a little more?
1. Given that GBTC currently trades at a negative premium (-15%), why would the "whales" sell GBTC shares and buy BTC instead of just holding GBTC shares? Such trade will realize significant loss compared to 2.5% yearly fee.
2. When FOMO returns to the market, why do you think GBTC will trade at a premium again? Is it because of "non-accredited or retail investors looking for a pure-play into BTC within the stock market"?
Your article is amazingly in-depth. I'm fascinated by not only how you find all these information but also how you derived a story behind them and make sense. Is there an update for May where the market dumped 50% from ATH? Thanks. PS: would love to have Jarvis as well, sharing is caring.
Thanks for the article, I read it late of course. But all I can say is if I would have read it even in April only base on so much retail money and leverage and such a less BTC dominance I would not see BTC pumping, though I would not have expected a 50% dump. I think the whole June we would be sideways or even drop to 25K, until I see the BTC dominance rise I am on sidelines.
Really enjoyed this post. Curious about your thoughts on a few things though:
1. The lifecycle of a grayscale product was tweeted by Barry Silbert. I don't know enough about TradeFi and ETFs to understand whether this changes the Grayscale Effect at all? Will the mechanics of how it operates stay the same? https://twitter.com/BarrySilbert/status/1379050017021956097?s=20
2. The financial landscape of Bitcoin is becoming more complex as futures and options have more bearing on price. Even if Grayscale unlockings stimulate the spot market, can we expect to see the same level of price appreciation seen in previous unlockings? Or could we see a deeper game being played with derivatives that will reduce the impact of the spot buying on price? If Grayscale investors are price agnostic and the premium returns, then it doesn't matter to them.
3. If price does rip for BTC, ETH is going to have to appreciate pretty hard as well to continue the trend in ETH / BTC and bring about alt season. Do you think these two things are mutually exclusive or both could happen? I.E. BTC rip throughout May / June AND Alt Season? Or does the Grayscale Effect delay Alt Season?
One thing I'd like to add as something to watch for is the flow of capital might not re-enter GBTC. But ETHE or the other trusts. The other Trusts have much less circulating supply, and creating premiums in those vehicles is less capital intensive than in GBTC. Something to consider. If we do, Grayscale Effect 2.0 - Altcoin version will need to be written up!
Ben someone shared this link on a private investor invite telegram of all places . This is a great read and a well thought out analysis . For what it’s worth we’re expecting bitcoin to go on next leg up and top out around 80k before a major correction . Then the liquidity swap into etherum and alts . Bitcoin. Recovers for an all time night into thanksgiving well over 100k
Thank you, Ben Lilly. I am learning so much. I really appreciate it🥂
thank you so much for your work，Sincerely
Thank you very much for your outstanding anaylsis. Could you share your thoughts a little more?
1. Given that GBTC currently trades at a negative premium (-15%), why would the "whales" sell GBTC shares and buy BTC instead of just holding GBTC shares? Such trade will realize significant loss compared to 2.5% yearly fee.
2. When FOMO returns to the market, why do you think GBTC will trade at a premium again? Is it because of "non-accredited or retail investors looking for a pure-play into BTC within the stock market"?
I think your analysis is trash to be honest. You've been wrong for several weeks. Are you paid to post such fairy tale predictions?
Your article is amazingly in-depth. I'm fascinated by not only how you find all these information but also how you derived a story behind them and make sense. Is there an update for May where the market dumped 50% from ATH? Thanks. PS: would love to have Jarvis as well, sharing is caring.
Thanks for the article, I read it late of course. But all I can say is if I would have read it even in April only base on so much retail money and leverage and such a less BTC dominance I would not see BTC pumping, though I would not have expected a 50% dump. I think the whole June we would be sideways or even drop to 25K, until I see the BTC dominance rise I am on sidelines.
PS: I will share with friends.
Love to hear your thought on Bitwise Fund xD
Really enjoyed this post. Curious about your thoughts on a few things though:
1. The lifecycle of a grayscale product was tweeted by Barry Silbert. I don't know enough about TradeFi and ETFs to understand whether this changes the Grayscale Effect at all? Will the mechanics of how it operates stay the same? https://twitter.com/BarrySilbert/status/1379050017021956097?s=20
2. The financial landscape of Bitcoin is becoming more complex as futures and options have more bearing on price. Even if Grayscale unlockings stimulate the spot market, can we expect to see the same level of price appreciation seen in previous unlockings? Or could we see a deeper game being played with derivatives that will reduce the impact of the spot buying on price? If Grayscale investors are price agnostic and the premium returns, then it doesn't matter to them.
3. If price does rip for BTC, ETH is going to have to appreciate pretty hard as well to continue the trend in ETH / BTC and bring about alt season. Do you think these two things are mutually exclusive or both could happen? I.E. BTC rip throughout May / June AND Alt Season? Or does the Grayscale Effect delay Alt Season?
You just killed my motivation to share with that last line 🥺