Hi Ben, I'm wondering why the Greyscale Effect is still considered bullish. Doesn't the argument assume that the Greyscale premium is positive? For a while now the premium has been consistently and significantly negative. I don't understand what incentive there is for the GBTC whales to sell on the secondary market at a loss in order to buy more BTC.
Hi Ben, thanks to you and the whole team for the terrific work they do every day. You are very informative.
Regarding the Pi-Cycle I see that it is currently a hot topic.
Lately I was digging a spider out of the hole by analyzing the Pi-Cycle by contextualizing the current bullrun after halving, in comparison with the past ones.
Currently we are in the third wave of doubling after the halving, analyzing the Pi-Cycle and the time in which the price doubles, we can see that we are in a situation similar to 2013 where there was a price spike that marked the third wave of price doubling and a Pi-Cycle crossing.
The 2017 bull run seems to have nothing to do with the current bull run, as in 2017 the Pi-Cycle was far away and the third doubling wave came around June: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CH33ikIZ/
Currently, however, the market structure appears to be similar to 2013 with a Pi-Cycle about to cross and the third wave of doubling under construction: https://www.tradingview.com/x/RgkuxaQr/
According to my indicator on Tradingview the crossover should activate by Friday, but this may be slightly different from the lookintobitcoin model.
What do you think about it? This analysis takes into account only the doubling after halving and the Pi-Cycle excluding all other analyzes.
I believe that we are currently going through a phase similar to 2013 where we will find an intermediate market top and then resume prices.
The chart is at a log scale so obviously the slopes are not going to be the same.. and even if that wasn’t the case, why would that be an argument for invalidating the Pi cycle? Doesn’t really make much sense
Hi Ben, I'm wondering why the Greyscale Effect is still considered bullish. Doesn't the argument assume that the Greyscale premium is positive? For a while now the premium has been consistently and significantly negative. I don't understand what incentive there is for the GBTC whales to sell on the secondary market at a loss in order to buy more BTC.
Hi Ben!
First of all, kudos for the great content you deliver every day :)
In regards to “The Grayscale Effect”, can you please give us some light on why you see their unlockings as a bullish signal??
My ‘supply-demand’ logic tells me that unlockings will increase the supply side, so for me that’s a bearish signal.
Thanks in advance for your enlightenment!
Hi Ben, thanks to you and the whole team for the terrific work they do every day. You are very informative.
Regarding the Pi-Cycle I see that it is currently a hot topic.
Lately I was digging a spider out of the hole by analyzing the Pi-Cycle by contextualizing the current bullrun after halving, in comparison with the past ones.
The March 31st Ecoinometics newsletter shows how the price after halving has doubled and in how long it took. Here is the reading: https://ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometrics-march-31-2021
Currently we are in the third wave of doubling after the halving, analyzing the Pi-Cycle and the time in which the price doubles, we can see that we are in a situation similar to 2013 where there was a price spike that marked the third wave of price doubling and a Pi-Cycle crossing.
Here is an image from 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/6i0VlrKa/
The 2017 bull run seems to have nothing to do with the current bull run, as in 2017 the Pi-Cycle was far away and the third doubling wave came around June: https://www.tradingview.com/x/CH33ikIZ/
Currently, however, the market structure appears to be similar to 2013 with a Pi-Cycle about to cross and the third wave of doubling under construction: https://www.tradingview.com/x/RgkuxaQr/
According to my indicator on Tradingview the crossover should activate by Friday, but this may be slightly different from the lookintobitcoin model.
What do you think about it? This analysis takes into account only the doubling after halving and the Pi-Cycle excluding all other analyzes.
I believe that we are currently going through a phase similar to 2013 where we will find an intermediate market top and then resume prices.
I got one problem with your Pi cycle claim:
The chart is at a log scale so obviously the slopes are not going to be the same.. and even if that wasn’t the case, why would that be an argument for invalidating the Pi cycle? Doesn’t really make much sense
As soon as I read this article, BTC fell down a bit before I could prepare. Hope it doesn't reach to 54k anymore