While I appreciate your analysis, CME has gaps all the time in various markets. Gold futures has no fewer than 20 price gaps to the downside including one from 1874.3-1875.7. Bitcoin also has three price gaps to the downside including one from 20330-21110. Price gaps to the upside do get filled more often because prices have a tendency to go up over time in most markets.
indeed, but due to the frequency of which BTC gaps are filled particularly i believe they create important levels to watch as targets when price begins to move in that direction
for instance, if BTC breaks out above 32k the probability of it closing the 35.1k Luna gap rises exponentially in my mind
conversely, if BTC were to fall back below 25-27k the odds of it closing the 20,330 - 21,110 gap will increase exponentially
simple sir, since the CME futures began trading in 2017, weekend gaps have nearly a 100% fill rate over time.
the how or why reasoning over why these gaps are so often filled is not so much of interest to me
all that matters is the probabilities, and when these long held gaps come into view of BTC price as they are now they become worthy monitoring as a future price level due to the high % likelihood of gap closure
Cheers JJ
While I appreciate your analysis, CME has gaps all the time in various markets. Gold futures has no fewer than 20 price gaps to the downside including one from 1874.3-1875.7. Bitcoin also has three price gaps to the downside including one from 20330-21110. Price gaps to the upside do get filled more often because prices have a tendency to go up over time in most markets.
indeed, but due to the frequency of which BTC gaps are filled particularly i believe they create important levels to watch as targets when price begins to move in that direction
for instance, if BTC breaks out above 32k the probability of it closing the 35.1k Luna gap rises exponentially in my mind
conversely, if BTC were to fall back below 25-27k the odds of it closing the 20,330 - 21,110 gap will increase exponentially
JJ, can you ELI5 how the “CME gap” in the FUTURES market can affect the price of BTC for those trading the real thing?
simple sir, since the CME futures began trading in 2017, weekend gaps have nearly a 100% fill rate over time.
the how or why reasoning over why these gaps are so often filled is not so much of interest to me
all that matters is the probabilities, and when these long held gaps come into view of BTC price as they are now they become worthy monitoring as a future price level due to the high % likelihood of gap closure
Thanks JJ.. I think I see. It doesn’t matter if the futures actually influence price or by what mechanism. It’s the correlation that matters.