Altseason is Near
Hear me out...
I’m beginning to believe I have an addiction.
My substance of choice is writing cryptocurrency content.
Not more than eight hours ago I wrote on twitter today’s issue would not happen. But for some reason, I woke up in the middle of the night to get my fix.
I refuse to skip a day… Especially in a bull market.
Things are moving too fast. I literally have over a dozen essays and thoughts I want to get out there in the hopes it helps somebody.
So here I am whacking the keyboard hoping I don’t wake anybody up.
Now, technically the Weekly ChainPulse issue is still delayed.
And frankly, with my brother Benjamin feeling ill, I knew the content would only be surface level.
It might not seem like it to some, but the insights you receive from us requires a team. There is no individual at Jarvis Labs. We bounce trends, ideas, and any market developments off one another literally nonstop 24/7.
What’s more, Benjamin is the AI translator. There are moments when I can’t tell if a machine or Benjamin is on the other line.
So without him in the mix, we’re missing what I consider the most integral part of the issue - the ChainPulse section.
Which is why I’m holding off on the regular ChainPulse edition. It would have been forced. And as many traders know, when you force something in the markets it tends to not work out.
Hopefully - fingers crossed Benjamin makes a turn for the better - we can send out a ChainPulse update in the next few days.
On a quick side note… There are two partners at Jarvis Labs: Benjamin and Ben Lilly. I know, it’s ridiculously confusing.
But I mention this since many are sending me (Ben Lilly) well wishes.
While I hope to remain fine for the immediate future, Benjamin is the one with COVID. In saying that, Benjamin has received every single well wish mistakenly sent to me. And frankly, I appreciate this mix up as I’m blown away with how supportive our readers are. You guys are really incredible. Thank you!
In the meantime, I really wanted to hit on a chart published in CoinTelegraph the other day. You can see it below.
This is our Chart of the Week.
Now, in our interview with CoinTelegraph we mentioned, “We think of altcoin season as market movements that take people by surprise or at least make traders rethink what is normal.”
Right now we’re stuck in what I’m referring to as the trend of expectation. We’ve been in it since the start of the crypto bull run that started prior to 2020.
In a bull run capital flows back into the space. And as more capital flow in, more capital moves further out into the risk curve.
This is pretty normal. We can see it happening via bitcoin’s dominance trending down.
But when it comes to an altseason, which is a point in time where euphoria grabs hold and investors begin to pile into the smallest cap opportunities in crypto, I’m of the opinion that we haven’t seen it yet.
I don’t believe we see reconsider what we think is normal.
This won’t happen until we drop below the current downward trending funnel seen in the chart above.
In terms of historically speaking… as in, what has happened prior… things start to get a bit cloudy when we do this.
There’s really only one instance for altseason. And based on a chart from CoinMarketCap, we can see what I mean when my thinking starts to get fuzzy.
Take a look at the chart below before I explain why.
Bitcoin dominance broke a similar funnel in the middle of 2017, which was before altcoins went bananas - December 2017.
This hints at the possibility of two altseason??? Woah, easy now… Is that right?
No, I’m not suggesting that we’ll see two altseasons.
Instead, I’m really bringing to light that the last time we broke expectations similar to what I laid out above, prices went nuts.
Just how nuts?
Here’s a chart of ETH/USD showing the two breaks in expectations.
The initial break higher resulted in nearly 800% returns while the second, over 400%.
These types of “effects” are what I consider breaking the norm. Those are the trades that when you’re on the right side, can be incredible wealth building moves. And for now I see the potential of one altseason beginning to take form
But understand with high upside comes high downside. This type of trading is best limited to spot and with rational position sizing.
Your Pulse on Crypto,