Super appreciate your updates! You don't leave your followers hanging in the dark, you are honest with what you see, and give objective interpretations, the complete opposite of certain huge onchain ct account!
Ben ... I am so impressed with all your thoughts .... thank you for your work and for sharing all this with us. Your analyzes are like mega espresso for me ... good luck my friend and I wish you blessings in what you do .... Greetings from Poland ... Icarus
Another great article! I just watched a lecture by Dr. Lacy Hunt. What I found interesting is he mentions some of the things you talked about but his graphs show that we have been on a path of deflation since the 1990s mainly due to the public debt that has been added to the economy, continues its path of diminishing returns ($1 of debt added returns now less that 30 cents to GDP). He believes that once our GDP growth rate reverts back and continues its decline heading into next yr, pressure will mount for gov't to try and stimulate the economy by spending more. I believe crypto will help find more long-term value more efficiently which our economy desperately needs, but do wonder how the debt burden may hinder that progress.
De-leveraging will happen through bitcoin. Attempts to take from the haves to the have nots will not be enough to fix the debt cycle. As Dalio said "we can have a beautiful de-leveraging" I think fiat has run its course on being able to achieve this. "Its only math" Greg Foss. Greater production is the only way to economic growth. Crypto has a way to fix the production problem. I was standing at a UPS store and just imagined a world where humans would not have to waste precious energy (time) to perform menial tasks. The imperfect production created my humans in every day life because of subjective motives can be eliminated by narratives discussed by Ben in his beautiful post. Advances in Technology (and money for individuals) only gives the collective group more spare time. As spare time is produced individuals are allowed to think outside of self preservation and continue to evolve beyond what was once the collective "self belief".. You can see this over the course of history through the neolithic revolution, printing press, internet and of course... crypto... De-leveraging through BTC will force the haves to part with portions of their wealth in order for the collective group to be able to gain this "spare time" through upping the quality of life of everyone.
Long inflation is an overcrowded trade. A number of keen market observers are calling for deflation. Lumber rolled over a few weeks ago and now it's base metals. When oil rolls over you can call it a wrap for inflation.
Now wage inflation or stagflation? Very possible and it'll be a net negative for just about everyone and everything.
Hi Ben fan of you and your teams public work, would like to offer a pointer to an alternative *data driven* explanation for the 30yr yield which will challenge base assumptions. In short "higher rates = slow economic growth" is a very stretched narrative not supported by the historic data, mostly spread by economists that do study economic history nor understand the bond market. "High interest rates occur during times of economic growth which then kills economic growth" is a poor circular argument not backed by longer term data.
An introduction to a different data driven method that reaches completely different conclusion that more closely matches what we actually see happening in world markets can be found on Emil Kalinowski's youtube playlist "Making Sense of Our Monetary Disorder", part of the Eurodollar University series with Jeff Snider (there are other podcast sources but Emil's playlist is the cleanest). At around 84 episodes now this will give a good overview and shake the assumptions made in your article to the core, all backed by hard data if you take the time to dig. Highly recommended.
Thanks again for all your public work, very informative!
Super appreciate your updates! You don't leave your followers hanging in the dark, you are honest with what you see, and give objective interpretations, the complete opposite of certain huge onchain ct account!
Ben ... I am so impressed with all your thoughts .... thank you for your work and for sharing all this with us. Your analyzes are like mega espresso for me ... good luck my friend and I wish you blessings in what you do .... Greetings from Poland ... Icarus
Another great article! I just watched a lecture by Dr. Lacy Hunt. What I found interesting is he mentions some of the things you talked about but his graphs show that we have been on a path of deflation since the 1990s mainly due to the public debt that has been added to the economy, continues its path of diminishing returns ($1 of debt added returns now less that 30 cents to GDP). He believes that once our GDP growth rate reverts back and continues its decline heading into next yr, pressure will mount for gov't to try and stimulate the economy by spending more. I believe crypto will help find more long-term value more efficiently which our economy desperately needs, but do wonder how the debt burden may hinder that progress.
Good stuff, Ben! I'll have to read it twice to absorb it :)
De-leveraging will happen through bitcoin. Attempts to take from the haves to the have nots will not be enough to fix the debt cycle. As Dalio said "we can have a beautiful de-leveraging" I think fiat has run its course on being able to achieve this. "Its only math" Greg Foss. Greater production is the only way to economic growth. Crypto has a way to fix the production problem. I was standing at a UPS store and just imagined a world where humans would not have to waste precious energy (time) to perform menial tasks. The imperfect production created my humans in every day life because of subjective motives can be eliminated by narratives discussed by Ben in his beautiful post. Advances in Technology (and money for individuals) only gives the collective group more spare time. As spare time is produced individuals are allowed to think outside of self preservation and continue to evolve beyond what was once the collective "self belief".. You can see this over the course of history through the neolithic revolution, printing press, internet and of course... crypto... De-leveraging through BTC will force the haves to part with portions of their wealth in order for the collective group to be able to gain this "spare time" through upping the quality of life of everyone.
Long inflation is an overcrowded trade. A number of keen market observers are calling for deflation. Lumber rolled over a few weeks ago and now it's base metals. When oil rolls over you can call it a wrap for inflation.
Now wage inflation or stagflation? Very possible and it'll be a net negative for just about everyone and everything.
Discl: sold all my INF shares today
Hi Ben fan of you and your teams public work, would like to offer a pointer to an alternative *data driven* explanation for the 30yr yield which will challenge base assumptions. In short "higher rates = slow economic growth" is a very stretched narrative not supported by the historic data, mostly spread by economists that do study economic history nor understand the bond market. "High interest rates occur during times of economic growth which then kills economic growth" is a poor circular argument not backed by longer term data.
An introduction to a different data driven method that reaches completely different conclusion that more closely matches what we actually see happening in world markets can be found on Emil Kalinowski's youtube playlist "Making Sense of Our Monetary Disorder", part of the Eurodollar University series with Jeff Snider (there are other podcast sources but Emil's playlist is the cleanest). At around 84 episodes now this will give a good overview and shake the assumptions made in your article to the core, all backed by hard data if you take the time to dig. Highly recommended.
Thanks again for all your public work, very informative!
Thank you for much signal in all that daily noise one gets caught up quickly.
What do you make of yesterdays statement by the BofA: "only market crash will prevent global central banks tightening next 6 months." ?