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Yaniv's avatar

Yeah, been following this also bc it was a good metric to follow for allmost 2 years.

I think the grow of stable coins m.cap and the usage of stable margind contract needs to be factored in now days when looking at this metric.

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Syymon's avatar

Hi well, nice analysis, the best in the scene as always

However, I would like to make a consideration: the metric we are analyzing is an OI / market cap, and analyzing the context in which we view the metric we can say that we are in a bear market, therefore basically a phase in which the market cap has gone a long way. to decrease; having said that our denominator will be weaker than when we viewed the metric 6 months ago, while the OI has increased accordingly making our numerator stronger and perhaps that could be why we see an OI / market cap increasing so aggressively from about on March 28. Do you think this could be a plausible statement?

Furthermore, speaking of today, alongside an analysis of the trend of funding rates we can see that despite the bear market, they remained mostly positive values ​​except in the local bottom phases, indicating that for the most part they were long to ask for more financial leverage. Wading the movement seems like a natural breath in a bear market trend, making me more comfy as we go up in saying that the most probability I have it down.

Furthermore, also consider that the financial markets (especially American) have been enveloped by positive air, anticipating a reversal of the fed, which at the moment personally looking at the data I still see unlikely, perhaps mr.market is too far ahead this time, and has forgotten that in macroeconomic dynamics such as these, seeing a market increase is counterproductive for the fed, as a rising market is creating wealth, in a context in which the fed is trying to reduce it to discourage spending in order to slow down demand.

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